According to a recent Realtor.com projection, several California towns should experience a big increase in home sales next year as a result of mortgage rates finally starting to decline.
In 2024, sales growth in five metro areas is expected to be double digits on an annual basis.
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks (18%), Bakersfield (13.4%), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (13.8%), San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad (11%) and Sacramento (10.3%) are the locations of these.
Realtor analysts anticipate that after two years of dropping sales, home sales in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area will rise by 9.2%.
The online real estate listing service, which is undoubtedly hoping for a rebound, used two metrics to rank the top 100 metro areas: projected rise in median home prices and predicted growth in single-family home sales.
According to Realtor, prices are predicted to rise to more than 40% of the 2017–19 average in each of those six California markets.
An intriguing division can be seen among California’s metro areas. Realtor reports that while five California metro areas made it into its top 10, none of them were in the Bay Area or Northern California.
Realtor analysts predict that in 2024, sales will fall by 18.5% in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, 6% in Fresno, and essentially flat in the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley region.
Realtor.com® 2024 Housing Forecast – 100 Largest U.S. Metros (Ranked)
| Rank | Market Title | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Sale Counts vs 2017-2019 Average | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price Year-over-Year | 2024 Existing Home Median Sale Price vs 2017-2019 Average | Combined 2024 Existing Home Sales and Price Growth |
| 1 | Toledo, OH | 14.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 43.4% | 22.3% |
| 2 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 18.0% | -35.1% | 3.3% | 43.3% | 21.3% |
| 3 | Rochester, NY | 6.2% | -20.6% | 10.4% | 66.5% | 16.6% |
| 4 | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 11.0% | -31.7% | 5.4% | 58.2% | 16.3% |
| 5 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 13.8% | -25.2% | 2.0% | 53.9% | 15.8% |
| 6 | Bakersfield, CA | 13.4% | -19.8% | 2.3% | 53.3% | 15.7% |
| 7 | Springfield, MA | 10.5% | -7.0% | 4.2% | 48.9% | 14.7% |
| 8 | Worcester, MA-CT | 9.1% | -17.2% | 4.8% | 61.8% | 13.9% |
| 9 | Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI | 6.1% | -20.5% | 7.2% | 72.3% | 13.3% |
| 10 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 9.2% | -31.9% | 3.5% | 45.1% | 12.7% |
| 11 | Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 3.1% | -13.5% | 9.1% | 59.5% | 12.2% |
| 12 | Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY | 8.3% | -9.4% | 3.9% | 55.9% | 12.1% |
| 13 | Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA | 5.5% | 16.2% | 6.3% | 61.0% | 11.8% |
| 14 | El Paso, TX | 6.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 66.8% | 10.9% |
| 15 | Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 5.6% | -7.6% | 5.1% | 41.3% | 10.6% |
| 16 | Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 9.1% | -14.1% | 1.2% | 44.1% | 10.2% |
| 17 | Syracuse, NY | 3.4% | -12.7% | 6.4% | 65.8% | 9.8% |
| 18 | Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 10.3% | -29.9% | -1.3% | 40.4% | 9.0% |
| 19 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 3.8% | -18.2% | 5.0% | 76.4% | 8.8% |
| 20 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 11.1% | -29.9% | -2.3% | 50.0% | 8.8% |
| 21 | Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 5.8% | -5.3% | 1.8% | 52.9% | 7.6% |
| 22 | Lansing-East Lansing, MI | 1.2% | -14.0% | 6.2% | 42.4% | 7.4% |
| 23 | Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 2.2% | -13.2% | 5.0% | 62.3% | 7.3% |
| 24 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 3.9% | -26.6% | 3.1% | 56.6% | 7.1% |
| 25 | New Haven-Milford, CT | 3.5% | -7.4% | 3.5% | 53.5% | 7.1% |
| 26 | Akron, OH | 3.2% | -9.0% | 3.2% | 37.6% | 6.3% |
| 27 | Portland-South Portland, ME | 8.0% | -35.2% | -1.9% | 61.1% | 6.1% |
| 28 | Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | -1.3% | -22.5% | 7.2% | 49.7% | 5.9% |
| 29 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 3.7% | -20.7% | 2.2% | 71.8% | 5.9% |
| 30 | Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 1.1% | -17.9% | 4.5% | 55.4% | 5.6% |
| 31 | Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 0.3% | -9.3% | 5.3% | 45.2% | 5.5% |
| 32 | Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 1.1% | -24.7% | 3.7% | 45.3% | 4.9% |
| 33 | Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | -5.6% | -25.8% | 9.9% | 52.1% | 4.4% |
| 34 | Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | -1.5% | -22.7% | 5.8% | 73.8% | 4.3% |
| 35 | Kansas City, MO-KS | 5.4% | -22.2% | -1.2% | 34.9% | 4.2% |
| 36 | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | -6.7% | -27.5% | 10.9% | 49.6% | 4.2% |
| 37 | Oklahoma City, OK | 1.9% | -2.3% | 1.6% | 44.5% | 3.5% |
| 38 | Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 0.4% | -5.7% | 3.1% | 37.7% | 3.5% |
| 39 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 3.9% | -55.8% | -1.0% | 55.3% | 2.9% |
| 40 | Madison, WI | 3.9% | -30.4% | -1.5% | 40.7% | 2.5% |
| 41 | Greensboro-High Point, NC | -1.2% | -3.9% | 3.3% | 55.3% | 2.1% |
| 42 | New Orleans-Metairie, LA | -1.1% | -21.1% | 3.1% | 38.9% | 2.0% |
| 43 | Dayton-Kettering, OH | -2.9% | -21.4% | 4.8% | 49.9% | 1.9% |
| 44 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | -0.8% | -30.8% | 2.6% | 39.7% | 1.8% |
| 45 | Cleveland-Elyria, OH | -1.2% | -19.7% | 2.8% | 40.3% | 1.7% |
| 46 | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | -3.1% | -26.4% | 4.6% | 38.1% | 1.5% |
| 47 | Tulsa, OK | -1.4% | -14.3% | 2.8% | 48.5% | 1.5% |
| 48 | Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 0.2% | -22.1% | 1.1% | 35.8% | 1.4% |
| 49 | Knoxville, TN | -5.9% | -25.7% | 7.2% | 93.8% | 1.3% |
| 50 | Albuquerque, NM | -4.1% | -38.4% | 5.2% | 59.0% | 1.1% |
| 51 | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | -0.6% | -30.4% | 1.6% | 50.8% | 1.0% |
| 52 | Tucson, AZ | 2.3% | -26.1% | -1.8% | 63.5% | 0.5% |
| 53 | Columbus, OH | -1.7% | -25.3% | 2.2% | 53.8% | 0.5% |
| 54 | Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | -3.9% | -27.1% | 4.1% | 55.6% | 0.2% |
| 55 | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4.4% | -34.7% | -4.3% | 63.8% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 2.9% | -3.2% | -3.5% | 67.8% | -0.6% |
| 57 | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | -0.6% | -29.1% | -0.6% | 41.8% | -1.2% |
| 58 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | -7.6% | -43.9% | 6.1% | 82.8% | -1.5% |
| 59 | Chattanooga, TN-GA | -3.6% | -15.1% | 2.0% | 65.2% | -1.6% |
| 60 | Pittsburgh, PA | -8.5% | -26.9% | 6.9% | 43.0% | -1.6% |
| 61 | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | -2.4% | -31.7% | -0.9% | 35.9% | -3.3% |
| 62 | North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 1.3% | -16.7% | -4.9% | 67.3% | -3.6% |
| 63 | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | -6.1% | -22.5% | 2.3% | 75.7% | -3.8% |
| 64 | Wichita, KS | -6.2% | -35.9% | 2.3% | 41.2% | -3.9% |
| 65 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -5.3% | -28.7% | 1.2% | 85.4% | -4.1% |
| 66 | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | -0.8% | -32.9% | -5.2% | 19.2% | -6.0% |
| 67 | Jacksonville, FL | -5.8% | -18.1% | -0.5% | 59.8% | -6.2% |
| 68 | Birmingham-Hoover, AL | -4.9% | -20.3% | -1.5% | 32.3% | -6.3% |
| 69 | Fresno, CA | -6.0% | -40.8% | -0.3% | 44.8% | -6.3% |
| 70 | Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 3.6% | -64.0% | -10.2% | 39.7% | -6.6% |
| 71 | Boise City, ID | -3.2% | -49.2% | -3.4% | 60.5% | -6.6% |
| 72 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -3.7% | -11.8% | -2.9% | 71.2% | -6.6% |
| 73 | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | -3.7% | -19.9% | -3.1% | 64.2% | -6.9% |
| 74 | Winston-Salem, NC | -8.0% | -12.6% | 0.3% | 53.0% | -7.7% |
| 75 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | -10.8% | -37.5% | 3.0% | 47.7% | -7.8% |
| 76 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | -9.2% | -36.7% | 1.1% | 32.6% | -8.1% |
| 77 | Richmond, VA | -11.6% | -34.2% | 3.3% | 50.7% | -8.3% |
| 78 | Stockton, CA | -5.8% | -37.2% | -3.7% | 40.7% | -9.5% |
| 79 | Charleston-North Charleston, SC | -13.2% | -26.6% | 3.7% | 75.4% | -9.5% |
| 80 | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | -13.4% | -36.0% | 3.8% | 48.5% | -9.6% |
| 81 | Urban Honolulu, HI | -8.9% | -47.2% | -1.9% | 19.4% | -10.7% |
| 82 | Greenville-Anderson, SC | -12.4% | -34.8% | 1.0% | 61.3% | -11.4% |
| 83 | Colorado Springs, CO | -11.5% | -42.5% | -1.7% | 54.5% | -13.2% |
| 84 | Raleigh-Cary, NC | -17.0% | -41.2% | 3.6% | 70.8% | -13.4% |
| 85 | St. Louis, MO-IL | -2.3% | -47.1% | -11.7% | 13.3% | -14.0% |
| 86 | Columbia, SC | -12.3% | -26.4% | -1.8% | 50.5% | -14.1% |
| 87 | Salt Lake City, UT | -10.2% | -51.7% | -4.1% | 50.5% | -14.2% |
| 88 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | -9.7% | -26.7% | -4.5% | 33.3% | -14.3% |
| 89 | Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -10.8% | -30.0% | -4.1% | 33.5% | -14.9% |
| 90 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | -18.5% | -44.1% | 3.1% | 37.3% | -15.3% |
| 91 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | -15.8% | -41.0% | 0.4% | 63.3% | -15.4% |
| 92 | Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | -11.4% | -35.0% | -4.8% | 51.3% | -16.2% |
| 93 | Ogden-Clearfield, UT | -15.1% | -53.1% | -3.8% | 57.2% | -18.9% |
| 94 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | -10.1% | -28.9% | -9.4% | 27.3% | -19.5% |
| 95 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | -15.3% | -41.8% | -5.1% | 35.4% | -20.4% |
| 96 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | -12.9% | -35.3% | -8.4% | 31.4% | -21.4% |
| 97 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | -22.4% | -45.6% | -0.9% | 58.0% | -23.3% |
| 98 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | -11.7% | -39.7% | -12.2% | 29.1% | -23.9% |
| 99 | Baton Rouge, LA | -20.4% | -38.6% | -5.6% | 17.8% | -25.9% |
| 100 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | -25.6% | -61.3% | -7.4% | 23.7% | -33.0% |
Realtor also notes that because less than a third of “homeowners” really owe money to banks or lenders rather than being outright homeowners, California’s top markets are typically more sensitive to mortgage rates than many other regions of the country.
Out of the top 10 markets, Oxnard has the lowest percentage of homeowners who are outright owners (30.0%), followed by San Diego (30.5%) and Riverside (38.4%).